Adam Empringham,
Director of Sales at Image Property.
Southeast Queensland Property Market Forecast For 2024
[lwptoc]While enduring five interest rate hikes this year, property owners and investors in Southeast Queensland have found comfort in increasing median property values, starkly contrasting the declines in Sydney and Melbourne.
As we bid farewell to 2023, what can buyers, sellers, investors, renters, and everyone in between expect for the real estate scene in 2024?
Anticipated House Price Surge
According to domain.com.au, projections indicate a nationwide surge in house prices by 5 to 7 per cent, with Brisbane’s median house prices expected to rise by a notable 9 per cent.
The driving forces behind this upward trajectory include sustained post-COVID migration, a pressing need for increased housing supply, and the prospect of relaxed lending practices.
Calls to review the mortgage serviceability buffer may expedite buyer access to the property market.
Interest Rates and Consumer Sentiment
The property boom of 2021 came to a halt in 2022 with the surge of inflation to a 20-year high and the initiation of cash rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Despite this, the prospect of interest rate adjustments in Australia has the potential to fuel another upswing in property prices and boost consumer sentiment.
A shift in interest rates is anticipated to provide relief and stimulate increased activity in the housing market.
The positive impact this will have on buyers, sellers, landlords and investors is expected to contribute to a favourable environment for property transactions in the coming months.
Director of Sales at Image Property, Adam Empringham, explored the intricate interplay of buyer behaviours and seller sentiments, specifically on the impact of interest rates.
Empringham highlighted a fascinating trend in buyer behaviours, noting a distinct 7–14-day window post-rate increase, wherein buyers exhibit a reserved demeanour, carefully reassessing their financial standing.
Following this contemplative period, market activity has a noteworthy resurgence, with individuals seamlessly returning to their typical buying patterns.
Shifting gears to seller sentiments, Empringham uncovered a counterintuitive reaction to increasing rates. Rather than capitalising on favourable market conditions, sellers are opting to hold onto their properties, resulting in an evident scarcity of stock.
This reluctance to list properties during rising rates has a domino effect, contributing to heightened market competition.
Empringham speculated that if these hesitant sellers were to enter the market, standard stock levels could be restored, potentially encouraging a more balanced and less fierce market.
Population-Driven Housing Demand Continues
“We’ve been really fortunate in SEQ to witness a substantial uptake of both national and international migration”
Population growth remains a prominent factor shaping the housing market landscape in 2024.
Domain’s analysis underscores the enduring impact of population growth on property prices, expecting it to persist into the new year. ABS data reveals a 2.2 per cent year-on-year increase in Australia’s population, with net overseas migration playing a pivotal role in this growth across all states.
Empringham recently shed light on the fortunate circumstances Southeast Queensland (SEQ) has experienced.
“We’ve been really fortunate in SEQ to witness a substantial uptake of both national and international migration,” Empringham shared.
With the recent reopening of international borders, this influx is gaining even more momentum, significantly influencing both the rental and sales markets.
Empringham expressed confidence in the ongoing impact of this trend, stating, “All indications point to this trend not slowing down anytime soon, which is what gives us great confidence as we look ahead to 2024.”
The continuous flow of migration is proving to be a driving force in shaping the real estate landscape in SEQ, setting the stage for a promising future in the property market.
Rental Markets at a Tipping Point
“In the wake of the New Year, we anticipate a notable rise in international students and migration.”
Southeast Queensland is currently witnessing signs of undersupply in certain suburbs, creating promising prospects for both landlords and tenants to navigate the dynamic rental market.
Tight markets with vacancy rates below 1% are evident in inner Brisbane areas such as Windsor (0.3%), and Nundah (0.5%). A balanced market typically maintains a 3% vacancy rate.
For those considering inner-city living, the competitive landscape may appear daunting. However, regions like Greenbank (2.6%) and Park Ridge (2.3%) are experiencing less demand, which provides tenants with a broader range of choices.
Steve Nottle, Head of Property Management at Image Property, recently highlighted positive developments in the rental market. He noted the anticipated increase in international students starting school in January and February, coinciding with one of the peak re-letting periods.
Nottle expects this period to intensify the competitiveness of the property market in certain areas.
“In the wake of the New Year, we anticipate a notable rise in international students and migration,” shared Nottle. “While this may initially pose challenges for tenants seeking properties, it also signifies the overall strength of the rental landscape.”
In this dynamic property landscape of Southeast Queensland, 2024 presents unique opportunities for buyers, sellers, investors and tenants. It’s crucial to stay ahead in this market, especially in areas like Brisbane and its surroundings.
Stay updated and seek professional guidance to make the most of Southeast Queensland’s property market.
