South-East Queensland’s property cycle explained

South-East Queensland’s property cycle explained

The Australian property market moves in cycles – but the last decade has been anything but average for South-East Queensland. From infrastructure upgrades and shifting lifestyle trends to the impact of migration and major events like the 2032 Olympics, the region has experienced a wave of change.

Below we break down what the property cycle is, how it’s shaped the past 10 years in Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast, and the Gold Coast, and what might lie ahead. Whether buying, selling, or investing, understanding where the market sits in the cycle can help guide the next move.

 

What is the Property Cycle?

The property cycle is a recurring pattern in real estate markets that typically unfolds in four stages:

– Recovery: Prices stabilise after a downturn, confidence begins to rebuild.

– Growth (Expansion): Demand rises, prices increase, and building activity picks up.

– Peak: Buyer activity surges, prices reach their highest point.

– Correction (Downturn): Affordability pressures or oversupply causes price growth to slow or reverse.

Most property cycles play out over 7–10 years. However, external factors like interest rates, population growth, infrastructure investment, and government policy can accelerate or delay these shifts – especially in high-demand regions like South-East Queensland.

 

Brisbane: A Decade of Consistent Climb

Brisbane has quietly become one of Australia’s strongest-performing capitals over the past 10 years. According to CoreLogic, Brisbane home values have risen by more than 55% since the start of the pandemic alone – a reflection of growing demand, major infrastructure projects, and ongoing affordability compared to Sydney or Melbourne.

What’s driving Brisbane’s property cycle?
– Population Growth: The city has grown from 2.28 million residents in 2018 to approximately 2.6 million in 2025.
– Major Infrastructure: Cross River Rail, Brisbane Metro, and Olympic preparations have helped underpin confidence.
– Relative Affordability: Buyers are drawn to Brisbane’s balance of lifestyle and value.

 

Sunshine Coast: A Lifestyle-Driven Surge

Over the past five years, the Sunshine Coast has transformed from a relaxed beach destination to a high-demand property hotspot. Median house prices have increased by 76%, with some suburbs now exceeding $1.1 million.

Why the surge?
– New CBD and Airport Upgrades: The Maroochydore city centre and airport expansion have brought jobs and business confidence.
– Sea-Change Appeal: The rise of remote work prompted many city dwellers to chase lifestyle over location.
– Limited Supply: Restricted land releases and high demand have created a highly competitive market.

 

Gold Coast: From Boom-Bust to Balanced Growth

Traditionally, the Gold Coast has had a more volatile market cycle. But over the last few years, the region has begun to show signs of maturity and long-term balance. CoreLogic predicts growth of 10 – 13% across 2025 alone.

What’s behind the shift?
– Economic Diversity: Growth in health, education, and tech has broadened the Gold Coast’s employment base.
– Luxury Builds: Premium developments have attracted both domestic and offshore buyers.
– Infrastructure Investment: Light rail expansions and city beautification projects have boosted confidence and livability.

 

What’s Next for the Region?

As we look ahead, all signs point to continued long-term growth across South-East Queensland – but timing remains everything.

Factors shaping the next phase of the cycle include:
– Interest Rates: The Reserve Bank’s decisions around the cash rate will impact borrowing power.
– Population Trends: Migration from southern states continues to put pressure on housing supply. For the first time, South-East Queensland is also being seriously considered by international buyers and expats returning home, drawn by lifestyle, relative affordability, and improving global connectivity.
– Olympic Momentum: As 2032 approaches, Brisbane and surrounds will likely benefit from global attention and infrastructure upgrades.

Each region is at a slightly different stage of the cycle – but they all share long-term potential.

 

How to Navigate the Cycle as a Buyer, Seller or Investor

Understanding where a market sits in the cycle can help shape your strategy:

If you’re buying:
– Look for suburbs just entering the growth phase – where infrastructure is improving and prices haven’t peaked.
– Focus on long-term livability: schools, transport, and lifestyle amenity still matter most.

If you’re selling:
– Capitalise during peak periods, especially when buyer competition is high and interest rates are low.
– Consider working with agents who lead their respective markets, show a genuine selling plan and can demonstrate how to attract and engage your potential audience from all buyer pools including local, national and international markets.

If you’re investing:
– Cash flow and capital growth both matter – look for markets with tight vacancy rates and ongoing demand drivers.
– Stay ahead of the curve by monitoring infrastructure projects and demographic shifts.

The last 10 years have shown just how much South-East Queensland can evolve. And while no one can predict the future perfectly, understanding the cycle – and your place in it – can help you move with confidence.

At Image Property, we’ve supported thousands of buyers and investors through changing market conditions. Whether you’re planning your next move or just want local insight, our expert team is here to help.

Want tailored advice on where the market’s headed next? Contact us today for a conversation grounded in local knowledge and experience.